Welcome to another week of Streets365. The fall market is beginning to take shape, and we’re getting a better look at what buyers and sellers are actually doing after the summer slowdown. Inventory remains unusually tight for this time of year, contracts are being signed, and some properties are attracting considerable competition. The next several weeks should give us an increasingly clear picture of the fall market.
Manhattan Market Dashboard
Active Inventory — 4,510
New Listings — 543
Signed Contracts — 117
30-Day Contract Pace — 600 — 30-day rolling total
Median Days on Market — Under $1 Million — 78 days
Median Days on Market — $1 Million–$2 Million — 72 days
Median Days on Market — $2 Million–$4 Million — 81 days
Median Days on Market — $4 Million+ — 96 days
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate — 6.95%
Most current figures available to us.
What I Notice
The fall market is returning, but it is returning with considerably less inventory than we would normally expect. Manhattan entered September with active inventory more than 20% below last year, which means buyers returning after Labor Day are not necessarily returning to a market filled with new choices.
Contract activity is worth watching against that backdrop. The 30-Day Contract Pace gives us a better view than any single week’s number because it smooths out some of the normal weekly movement. For the next few weeks, I’ll be watching whether that rolling number begins to rise as more buyers and sellers return to the market.
Mortgage rates moved in the other direction this week. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.95%, from 6.76% the previous week. For financed buyers, rates close to 7% remain a significant part of the affordability equation.
Thoughts for the Week
One of the more interesting numbers reported this week was that 21.8% of New York City homes sold above their most recent asking price in August. Brooklyn was particularly competitive, with nearly one-third of homes selling above ask, while Manhattan inventory was reported down more than 11% from a year earlier.
There was also an interesting story developing outside the residential market. Manhattan’s office recovery continues to gain momentum. SL Green reported this week that it has signed 129 Manhattan office leases totaling almost 1.8 million square feet so far this year. Its completed leases were signed at rents averaging 15.8% above the previous fully escalated rents for those spaces.
Residential bidding competition and stronger office leasing are very different parts of the real estate market, but both are worth watching as we move into the fall.
Something New From Streets365
Streets365 is all about helping New York City residential agents solve the problems they face today while building stronger businesses for the future.
Streets365 Membership is free.
But agents have been asking for more depth in the articles and more “how to” advice. They also want a place to have a dialogue when something comes up in a deal.
That’s why I’ve created Inside Agent, a paid membership within Streets365.
Inside Agent is for agents who want to keep becoming better at what they do, build a business that clients choose, trust and recommend, and to have a place to turn when they are facing a problem they don’t want to figure out entirely on their own.
It combines ongoing weekly professional development with something I think is particularly important to all agents: The Agent Roundtable, a place where Inside Agents can bring real questions about their clients, deals and businesses and benefit from the experience and perspective of myself and other Inside Agents.
I’m beginning Inside Agent with the Inside Agent Founders Program, giving 20 licensed New York City residential agents the opportunity to experience Inside Agent for themselves.
The Founders Program officially begins this week. I’ve put together a page explaining Inside Agent, what Founding Members receive and how the program will work.
I encourage you to follow the link and see if the Founders Program sounds like something you want to be a part of. You can sign up there for one of the 20 available memberships.
Think Beyond The Deal,
George